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NFL Week 8 Picks

Another week is in the books, and it was yet another week where I was over .500 and positive in units (8-6-0, +70u)! I’m not a big fan of this week’s slate of games, I feel Vegas is going to come really close on a lot of these games.

Tucci’s Week 8 Picks (61-42-3, Lock of the Week 5-2-0, +440 units)

Patriots -8 vs Dolphins 10 units

Lions +3.5 at Chiefs (London) 5 units

This is a real tough one, specifically because it’s at a neutral stadium. Both of these teams are pretty *trash emoji*, but I feel like this would be a gimme if Kansas City was at Arrowhead. The Lions are structurally built to beat the Chiefs. Detroit LOVES to air that shit out. Stafford blindly throws the football to Megatron and friends all day. Kansas City’s secondary is on its last legs. I’m not convinced the Chiefs could move the ball down the field easily without Jamaal Charles, either. Detroit HAS to cover, right? Right?

Falcons -7.5 vs Buccaneers 5 units

I can’t even make a case for the Falcons covering here, but I have an inkling Vegas knows shit I don’t. The Falcons have looked very mediocre the past few weeks, barely edging out a Zach Mettenberger-led Titans team last week and losing to a bad Saints team the week prior. I actually think Atlanta’s defense will perplex Jameis in this one, causing him to cough up the ball a few times en route to some scores and a blowout. What scares me is if Tampa Bay gets Doug Martin going early, which can spell trouble for not only the Falcons chances to cover but to win the game outright.

Ravens -3.5 vs Chargers 5 units

Historically NFL teams who travel West to East don’t fare well. I don’t like the Ravens very much this year, but they should have no problem running all over the Chargers generous run defense. Continue reading

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2015-16 NBA Win Totals

Me and David love to bet, so we decided to make our predictions on NBA win totals. The format below goes by: 2014 record/2014 projection/2015 projection. One interesting tidbit we’ve uncovered: if you were to just bet the UNDER for every team listed last season, you’d go 16-13-1.

Atlanta Hawks – (60-22) – 41.5 – 50

Prediction: OVER

We’ll see just how important DeMarre Carroll was to this team. But most of this team’s core is intact with Teague, Millsap, Korver, and Horford all returning. Sure, they definitely overachieved, beating their projected total by 18.5 wins, but 10 games seems like a lot to me for a team that stays largely intact. These guys are basically the Spurs East to me without the star recognition.

Boston Celtics – (40-42) – 26.5 – 45.5

Prediction: UNDER

Don’t get me wrong, I love Brad Stevens as a coach and this team got hot at the end of last year but this team was already overachieving a lot. 45 wins are a lot to ask for a team without too much talent in the front-court.

Brooklyn Nets – (38-44) – 41.5 – 27.5

Prediction: UNDER

27.5 wins is generous for a team that will start Shane Larkin and Bogdan Bogdanovic for a good part of the early season and will be playing on the road for 11 of their first 16 games. After that brutal stretch they might be a little more convinced to blow it up and start the real tanking. Throw in an inefficient Joe Johnson and an injury-prone Brook Lopez and you have a recipe for disaster.

Charlotte Hornets – (33-49) – 45 – 34

Projection: UNDER

I don’t see any reason to think this team will be any better or worse than last year. They’ve lost MKG for potentially the whole season, so they’ll be struggling on defense. Keep an eye on Nic Batum and P.J. Hairston, as the Hornets record is very dependent on how they perform this year.

Chicago Bulls – (50-32) – 54.5 – 50

Projection: UNDER

On paper the players all sound great in the lineup other than Tony Snell, but there are a lot of reasons why the Bulls can miss 50 wins. Do we really trust Derrick Rose to stay healthy for a full season? They might be able to score a ton of points (key word might), but can you imagine how disastrous the interior defense will be when they have those McDermott, Mirotic, Gasol lineups out there? Even if they outperform expectations, will there really be that much of an incentive to keep winning games once they have a playoffs spot locked up and teams like Atlanta, Cleveland, and Toronto are out of reach? Continue reading

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Week 7 NFL Picks

Once again, I had no time to do any real research last week, but I still managed to go positive in units and 6-7-1 and I fucked up my Lock of the Week. This week I was able to take in a good amount of game film and hopefully I can be back to over .500 again.

Tucci’s Week 7 Picks (53-36-3, Lock of the Week 4-2-0, +360 units)

Seahawks -6.5 at Niners 5 units

Jaguars +4.5 vs Bills (London) 5 units

I’m not buying this Bills squad when it’s led by E.J. Manuel. He’s pretty awful at throwing the football, forcing the Bills to go run heavy while facing a defense that’s above average against the run. The Jags seem to always jag in any game I pick them to cover, but that means they’re due, right?

Lions +2 vs Vikings 5 units

This number has trap written all over it. The average fan would think the Vikes take this game easy, but I feel Detroit can turn on their offense and put points up on the board. Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t seem to be built to score in bunches (he wins grind outs). I feel the Lions score early and often and the Purple People Eaters won’t be able to climb back.

Colts -4 vs Saints 15 units

There’s definitely value to be had on the Colts here, as they keep losing which may equate to losing respect in Vegas. This one will be a barn burner, but I can’t trust the shaky Saints offense to keep up with Andrew Luck, who has been steadily improving after a below average start to the season. Drew Brees looks washed, fam. I can’t comfortably bet the Saints against an offensive juggernaut.

Chiefs -3 vs Steelers 10 units

The public is going to be heavy on the Steelers here, I’d imagine, after the Chiefs blew yet another close game and the Steelers did the opposite, beating an upstart Cardinals team after Landry Jones relieved Mike Vick’s wack ass midway through the game. Jones isn’t much better than Vick, and I feel the Chiefs can’t possibly blow another one at home.

Dolphins -4 vs Texans 5 units

I’m still wary to fully invest in this Dolphins team. Miami looked fantastical in its game against Tennessee last week, putting up an eyebrow raising 38 points under new head coach Dan Campbell and defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. Do teams have enough information on their game plan now? It’s possible, but I’ll still take the Phins at home against a pretty shitty team. The upside is just too high.

Jets +7.5 at Patriots 25 units

I really really like this Jets team. This team seems to have all of the important phases of the game figured out (strong defense, strong run game). Brady and his shapeshifting offensive line will have little time to throw. A little birdy tells me that Brady is going to get hit A LOT in this one. The Jets will give New England a patented scare at home. Can see a last-second field goal deciding this one.

Browns +6.5 at Rams 10 units

I think the Rams take this game for sure, but at a margin closer to 4 rather than 6-7. The Rams are coming off a bye and are at home, two great signs. Also, word to Todd Gurley’s fantasy owners: whip out your cocks, daddy ordered a 20 piece. Gurley should absolutely feast on a generous Cleveland run defense. Too bad I can’t trust the volatile Nicky Foles, otherwise I’d be all over the Rams ATS. Take them in your eliminator pool though!

Falcons -6 at Titans 10 units

Can Wacky Zacky Mettenberger pull off the unthinkable and cover in a spot start against one of the hottest teams in the NFL? I don’t think so. He wasn’t bad at all as a rookie, but I just can’t see him keeping up with the high-flying Falcons offense for 60 minutes.

Redskins -3.5 vs Buccaneers 20 units

I think this Skins team has a better-than-you-think defense. The run defense is stout, and the DBs know how to strip and force fumbles. This Bucs team is still young and heavily reliant on the run. First overall pick Jameis has looked like a rookie thus far. I think the Skins control time of possession easily and win by 6.

Raidahs +3.5 at Chargahs 10 units

This game scares me, as San Diego has looked quite strong the last two weeks (despite losing). The Raiders, however, are coming off a bye and will likely have enough fans in San Diego to turn this into a neutral site game. Rivers generally struggles against Oakland, even when they were bad, so I like this one to be close.

Cowboys +3 at Giants 5 units

This is a toss up to me, but I think Matt Cassel may surprise and toss a few tuddies in this one. The Cowboys defense is strong, and I feel Eli will continue to struggle throwing the ball.

Ravens +10 at Cardinals 25 units

How in the world? The Cardinals are good, but they’re not THIS good. I can’t see the Cardinals losing in any scenario here, but I think the Ravens have lost too many close games to be considered a double digit dog against anyone other than maybe the Patriots. This seems like free money.

Tucci’s Lock of the Week

Panthers -3 vs Eagles 50 units

Are we missing something here about the Eagles? I can no longer trust Sammy B after last week’s mess, even though they covered by a mile (and I made money off it!). The Panthers defense is as legit as it gets, and I don’t see Demarco Murray finding any easy running lanes here. The Eagles front line on defense looked as strong as anyone’s last week, but putting a mobile QB like Cam Newton in the mix throws a monkey wrench into the whole situation. I just can’t see the Eagles consistently putting up points due to poor ball protection. Panthers by a lot.

David’s Week 7 Picks (44-45-3, Lock of the Week 4-2-0, +72.5 units)

Niners +6.5 vs Seahawks 5 units

Jaguars +4.5 vs Bills (London) 10 units

Lions +2 vs Vikings 10 units

Colts -4 vs Saints 5 units

Chiefs -3 vs Steelers 5 units

Texans +4 at Miami 5 units

Jets +7.5 at Patriots 5 units

Browns +6.5 at Rams 5 units

Falcons -6 at Titans 5 units

Buccaneers +3.5 at Redskins 5 units

Raiders +3.5 at Chargers 5 units

Giants -3 vs Cowboys 5 units

Panthers -3 vs Eagles 5 units

David’s Lock of the Week

Ravens +10 at Cardinals 20 units

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Week 6 NFL Picks

Last week was a shitshow, as both I and David were BUSY AS FUCK and couldn’t properly make any analysis for the games. I literally made my picks at 11:55 AM on Sunday. And I still went 6-5-2 not including Thursday. And I hit that Lock (Pats -8.5 at Cowboys) boa. I barely have enough time for analysis this week, and. David got a shitty job with shitty hours so he’s no longer able to write his generally wrong analysis. So here goes it.

Tucci’s Week 6 Picks (45-31-2, Lock of the Week 4-1-0, +345 units)

Falcons -3.5 at Saints 5 units

Bengals -3.5 at Bills 20 units

Is Vegas really giving the Bills this much of a shot with E.J. Manuel at the helm? This guy was benched for just about everyone in recent memory. LeSean McCoy is not 100%, and his backups aren’t shit either. I don’t see how this Bengals team is only a 3.5 favorite but whatever.

Vikings -4.5 vs Chiefs 25 units

I really like this Vikings team. It seems undervalued, especially at home against a team that just lost against one of the bottom 3 teams in the league in the Bears, as well as losing the heart of its offense, Jamaal Charles, to a torn ACL. The Vikings should have no problems scoring. The opposite goes for the Chiefs.

Jaguars -1.5 vs Texans 5 units

Both of these teams are pretty bad, but I’m more confident in Jacksonville’s scoring ability at this point, since neither of these teams can defend for shit. Expect about 45 Arian Foster/Nuk Hopkins touches in this one. Hopefully they only get 2 TDs instead of 4.

Lions -3 vs Bears 20 units

Yes, the Lions got anally probed last week by the Cardinals (42 points given up at Ford Field). But a lot of it had to do with fluky turnovers by the Lions. Matt Stafford threw 3 picks, but only one of them was a truly awful throw. Everything seemed to be going wrong for the Lions and I don’t think that will happen two weeks in a row. This is also the point when their schedule opens up, as they’ve faced San Diego, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle and Arizona to start the season, all top flight passing defenses. Somehow the Bears rank in the top 5 for this, but we all know they’re really not that good. It’s the Bears! Lions bounce back and win 24-20.

Redskins +7 at Jets 10 units

The Foreskins have been a cover machine this year, it seems. It wasn’t easy picking against a team that’s coming off a bye and is playing at home, but I feel 7 is a bit much to give against a team that generally stays in games. Both of these teams are run oriented and defensive, so I just don’t see this getting out of hand either way.

Steelers +4.5 vs Cardinals 5 units

This game has trap bet written all over it. I’d have to imagine the public is HEAVY on Arizona here, after what they’ve been doing to opponents so far this season. Pittsburgh barely beat a weak San Francisco team, but I really feel like the value here lies in playing at Pittsburgh, a hostile environment. As long as the Steelers can protect the football, they should be able to stay within reach the entire game. The Cardinals have been blessed with great starting field position in a lot of games they’ve played, which led to their big scores.

Titans -1.5 vs Dolphins 5 units

You’d be a psychopath to lay any large amount of money on this game. The Dolphins have basically hit the reset button, so will they be as awesome as they could be? Or will they be even worse than before? I’ll take the home favorite all day here.

Seahawks -7 vs Panthers 5 units

This is my hate game of the week. These two teams are constructed very similarly. Seattle has been looking very beatable as of late, but I feel this will be a statement game for them after pretty much blowing the game against Detroit last time at home. Carolina will struggle to find any sort of offense in this one I feel.

Packers -10.5 vs Chargers 5 units

Can anyone comfortably take a team playing at Lambeau right now? I can’t.

Niners +2 vs Ravens 10 units

Both of these teams are a mess, but I feel the Niners defense is a different beast at home. The Ravens are banged up on offense and may have to resort to their 2nd string players at all key position other than QB, which is a recipe for disaster.

Colts +9.5 vs Patriots 5 units

This might be the game Vegas makes a killing on. There’s no doubt the public has to be at least 90% in on New England. I also like this to be the Andrew Luck bounce back game we’ve been waiting for all season. Patriots will win in a shootout, but not by much.

Eagles -4.5 vs Giants 10 units

The Eagles are this year’s R-E-L-A-X team. It wasn’t smart to think they’d be scoring 35 a game from Week 1 with an entirely new crop of players on offense. It’s Week 6 and the offensive line is finally coming around, so I think the Eagles murder the Giants here both through the air and ground.

Tucci’s Lock of the Week

Broncos -4.5 at Browns 35 units

Peyton’s noodle ass arm makes these Broncos games automatically close it seems, but the difference for me this week will be the Swiss cheese Browns defense that may finally allow fantasy bust C.J. Anderson to finally top 3.5 yards per carry this year. If Manning can get his run game going, he should be able to lead this offense to at least 5 red zone trips. Josh McCown played the game of his life last week, throwing for 457 yards on a weakened Ravens defense. I’d be shocked if McCown threw for even half that on this elite Denver D. Broncs by a lot.

David’s Week 6 Picks (37-39-2, Lock of the Week 4-1-0, +87.5 units)

Falcons -3.5 at Saints 5 units

Broncos -4.5 at Browns 5 units

Bengals -3.5 at Bills 5 units

Chiefs +4.5 at Vikings 5 units

Jaguars -1.5 vs Texans 5 units

Bears +3 at Lions 5 units

Steelers +4.5 vs Cardinals 5 units

Titans -1.5 vs Dolphins 10 units

Panthers +7 at Seahawks 10 units

Chargers +10.5 at Packers 5 units

Niners +2 vs Ravens 5 units

Patriots -9.5 at Colts 5 units

Eagles -4.5 vs Giants 5 units

David’s Lock of the Week

Redskins +7 at Jets 20 units

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Week 5 NFL Picks

No time to do a write up this week lol.

Tucci’s Week 5 Picks (39-25-0, Lock of the Week 3-1-0, +325 units)

Colts +5 at Texans 5 units

Falcons -7 vs Redskins 5 units

Browns +7 at Ravens 20 units

Seahawks +3 at Bengals 5 units

Packers -10 vs Rams 10 units

Chiefs -10 vs Bears 10 units

Eagles -5.5 vs Saints 20 units

Jaguars +2.5 at Buccaneers 30 units

Titans +1 vs Bills 5 units

Cardinals -3 at Lions 5 units

Raiders +4 vs Broncos 35 units

Giants -6.5 vs Niners 5 units

Steelers +4 at Chargers 5 units

Tucci’s Lock of the Week

Patriots -8.5 at Cowboys 50 units

David’s Week 5 Picks

Texans -5 vs Colts 5 units

Chiefs -10 vs Bears 5 units

Redskins +7 at Falcons 15 units

Bengals -3 vs Seahawks 5 units

Rams +10 at Packers 5 units

Eagles -5.5 vs Saints 5 units

Jaguars +2.5 at Buccaneers 5 units

Titans +1 vs Bills 5 units

Lions +3 vs Cardinals 5 units

Patriots -8.5 at Cowboys 5 units

Broncos -4 at Raiders 5 units

Giants -6.5 vs Niners 5 units

Chargers -4 vs Steelers 5 units

David’s Lock of the Week

Browns +7 at Ravens 15 units

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Week 4 NFL Picks

What a time. To be alive. I absolutely killed it last week, going 10-6 and nailing my Lock (PIT +1 at STL) while David scored the inverse of both. This is the week where Vegas figures it out, it seems, so hopefully my streak of going over .500 stays intact. Also, shoutout to Sammy B and the Eagles gettin’ it done last week as I irrationally predicted they would. Now watch them fuck it all up again when they play a weak Redskins team.

Tucci’s Week 4 Picks (29-20-0, Lock of the Week 2-1-0, +280 units)

Steelers +2.5 vs Ravens 5 units

Fire that motherfucker Todd Haley and that motherfucker Josh Scobee too (the Steelers released Scobee yesterday). The Steelers had this one wrapped up multiple times, but thanks to a strange 4th-and-1 play call which had Michael Vick throwing because of the distrust in Scobee’s inaccurate leg (he missed a very easy 40 yard field goal to essentially seal the game). Whatever. This was basically a tie game but will instead be an L thanks to some horrific luck.

Jets -2 at Dolphins (London) 10 units

This is one of the tougher games this week, as both teams are at a neutral site and the Dolphins are playing way shittier than everyone thought they would this year. Someone needs to get Jonathan Papelbon to strangle Joe Philbin’s sorry ass for his inability to coach this group of players to success. I have a feeling the Dolphins will be JET-LAGGED (haha, get it?) coming into this one, causing this game to be run heavy on both sides. Lamar Miller can’t get anything going and I don’t foresee him getting anything going this week either. Poor Lamar.

Falcons -6 vs Texans 15 units

Atlanta surprisingly hasn’t fallen from its peak it usually does after Week 1. Good job Matt Ryan, you finally figured out that if you force feed the ball to Julio Jones even when he’s covered by 10 guys you will still have success. If Arian Foster returns, this game gets a bit more interesting but I feel Foster will miss just one more week to be safe. Falcons in a landslide.

Giants +5 at Bills 10 units

I think Tom Coughlin has this team in the zone defensively in addition to the fact New York is coming off a very long week of rest and preparation. The Bills will likely be without Sammy Watkins, who is the only real WR on Buffalo that could’ve caused the Giants a headache. Also, Shady McCoy will be sitting this one as well, but backup rookie RB Karlos Williams isn’t much worse. I think this will be a low-scoring one, eye the under.

Raiders -3.5 at Bears 25 units

One team I have really fallen in love with over the past few years is the Raiders, and they’re finally looking like they’ve figured out how to play AND draft, which I’m sure sounds unheard of to anyone who has followed this team over the past decade. Derek Carr is the real deal ladies and gentleman. His offensive line gives him tons of time, and Amari Cooper just flat out gets open most of the time. The Bears are pretty much in full on tank mode (as they should be), after trading away guys like Jared Allen and Jonathan Bostic this week to stockpile draft picks. Imagine if GM Ryan Pace is able to unload Cutler soon as well. This would be the happiest 2-14 fanbase of all time, undoubtedly. This might be the week Oakland starts getting respect from Vegas.

Bengals -4 vs Chiefs 15 units

Is Cincinnati the 2nd best team in the AFC behind New England? I think this week will be very telling. The Chiefs are coming off a short week where they played a really bad game in Green Bay. They also lost their slot corner to an ACL tear, which is really bad news considering they let a scrub like James Jones completely annihilate them last week. AJ Green must be licking his chops.

Jaguars +9 at Colts 15 units

This Colts team has been an absolute nightmare this season. Andrew Luck looks to have taken a step backwards somehow, as he ranks in the bottom tier of QBs through three games. Yes, the Jaguars aren’t good either, but I don’t think the disparity between these two teams is anywhere close to 9 points. I expect a barn burner here, with the Colts edging the Jaguars out by a few.

Redskins +3 vs Eagles, 5 units

The public is going to be all over Philly in this one after seeing how both teams performed last weekend, which is why I’m all in on Washington. The Skins are a different team at home, and always look to shut down the opposition’s run game, which Philly is reliant on to run their offense efficiently. Sammy Fuckface is going to have to toss the ol’ pigskin 50+ times in this one probably, unless, in a worst-case scenario, the Eagles line comes to play and opens up lanes for Murray/Mathews. But I’m not banking on that happening twice in a row on the road against proven run-stopping defenses.

Browns +7 at Chargers, 10 units

I feel as if last week was Josh McCown’s warm up week. He was by no means great at any point, but he did end up looking better and better as the game went on. The Chargers aren’t a very good team, and I just can’t lay that many points with them, even at home.

Cardinals -7.5 vs Rams, 25 units

The Cards have been on a tear to open the season, moving into Super Bowl-contender territory in the process. No one expected this offense to be THIS good, as they’ve put up 31, 48 and 47 points in each game respectively. No, they haven’t faced any real defenses yet (Saints, Bears, Niners) but scoring that many points in the NFL says a lot, no matter who it’s against. I would probably take the points if the Rams were at home, but I just can’t until the Cards prove that they’re not really as good as they’ve looked.

Broncos -7 vs Vikings, 20 units

People keep doubting this Broncos team this year, but I’m going to stick with them through this high point spread. Yes, Peyton isn’t the same, physically, but he is still as strong as ever mentally and gets the job done on offense. As I’ve stated in prior weeks, this Denver defense may be the best in the league and is most certainly deserving of a top three ranking thus far. Minnesota won’t be able to move the ball through the air when they need to in this one, and I don’t see Adrian Peterson running where he wants like he has been doing.

Niners +9 vs Packers, 5 units

This pick may blow up in my face as the Niners are probably at their worst ever in the past five seasons. It would not shock me if Green Bay won by 35 but I feel that Kaepernick will just get a bunch of garbage time TDs a la Alex Smith to keep it closer than the score indicates. I’m not trying to buy into the history between these two, because fuck history. It’s all about now. And right now the Niners suck cock and the Packers are the complete opposite.

Saints -3 vs Cowboys, 20 units

The Saints clearly are underperforming, and I’m banking on them getting it together this week. Brees is back, and he’s had enough games with this offense to know who’s who at this point. Also, at 0-3, you’d have to think the Saints show a sense of urgency at home.

Seahawks -10 vs Lions, 35 units

Detroit has been a mess thus far. Stafford is making Megatron look average out there, which is pretty damn hard to do. Seattle is once again at home, which is an automatic L, and Detroit will struggle to find the end zone more than once (like most offenses), which makes this entire bet about whether Russ Wilson can put up enough points here to cover. We only need about 20-24 from ya Russ.

Lock of the Week

Panthers -3.5 at Buccaneers, 50 units

Do I smell a trap bet? Or is Vegas just unimpressed by Carolina’s showing last week against the Luke McCown-led Saints? Either way, I still think Jameis Winston is trash and I don’t think he’ll be able to get much going against a stingy Panthers defense. David was burned by the cats as his lock last week, but I believe in them this week. The Panthers should win handily.

David’s Week 4 Picks (24-24-1, Lock of the Week 2-1-0, +42.5 units)

Well, that week was quite the disaster. Of course, I did say that I was due for a bad week last week, and unsurprisingly, the games were really chalky last week and I took a beating. If you actually bet all my picks straight without my confidence you would be in the negative since you have to be over 52.3% betting 11 to make 10 to turn a profit. Fortunately the confidence units would probably bring you slightly into the positive, for now.

Steelers +2.5 vs Ravens 5 units

Dolphins +2 vs Jets 5 units

This game should be an ugly one since the players will be half awake with the early start time in London. Being in London also should also nullify the home advantage some for the Dolphins. I still think the game will be close and the Dolphins seem due for some better luck, like the Ravens on Thursday.

Falcons -6 vs Texans 5 units

The Falcons are really hot right now, even though they have gotten all their wins in a close or come-from-behind fashion. Don’t underestimate good coaching, even if Arian Foster comes back and runs all over that awful Falcons D.

Raiders -3.5 at Bears 5 units

I would probably take the Bears here if I thought that Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery were playing. Unfortunately, they are not, and the Bears seem like they are beginning their tanking by trading away Jared Allen and Jon Bostic. It will be a full-on fire sale soon if the Bears keep losing games.

Bengals -4 vs Chiefs 5 units

This year I’m trusting in the Bengals as they have not let me down yet. I probably will only shy away from this team if they play a prime-time game, as Andy Dalton seems to regress into a high-school quarterback when that occurs. It will be interesting to see how much better the Chiefs passing defense will be now that they get one of the league’s better corners back in Sean Smith.

Jaguars +9 at Colts 5 units

The Jags are not good at all. This is just a bet on the fact that the Colts have not been so great either and will be missing a large portion of their secondary aside from Vontae Davis. Allen Hurns and Rashad Greene will probably have pretty solid games fantasy wise, if you’re into that stuff.

Panthers -3.5 at Buccaneers 10 units

I am struggling to see how this game will be decided by a field goal, but I missed on the Carolina “lock” last week, so don’t take my word for it. The Panthers just feel like a far superior team all around, outside of receivers.

Redskins +3 vs Eagles 5 units

Upset alert, these teams seem to trade wins against each other every game, so just take the points and home team and hope for the best.

Chargers -7 vs Browns 5 units

To be honest, I don’t think the Chargers really match up too well against the Browns. The Browns have a better pass defense than rushing while the Chargers offense goes through the air when it is clicking. The Browns also run the ball a lot and the Chargers don’t have the greatest run defense, as Adrian Peterson demonstrated last week.  I just assume that Josh McCown will implode against a pretty good pass defense on the road.

Vikings +7 at Broncos 20 units

I don’t see how the Broncos will cover this line unless they get their run game going and Teddy Bridgewater gets totally rattled. Peyton has shown he is not done yet, but the Broncos defense can be attacked on the ground as the Thursday night game showed in week 2. AP should keep the game close.

Rams +7.5 at Cardinals 5 units

The half point makes this bet easier for me. I don’t see how the Cardinals can keep blowing out team after team, especially when you consider how cake their schedule has been against the Saints, Bears, and Niners (combined 1-8 record). I think the Rams find a way to keep it close.

Niners +9 vs Packers 5 units

I’m just hoping the Niners have the magic touch against the Packers at home, they are 3-0 in the last three meetings with the Packers, making me think there is something about the Niners offense that the Packers struggle with. This pick has little to do with the eye test, as it would be hard to pick against the Packers or for the Niners after last game.

Cowboys +3 at Saints 5 units

Just because the Cowboys lost at home to the Falcons does not mean they should lose to the Saints on the road.  This line should be closer in my mind, but maybe Luke McCown is actually good and Weeden is just too bad?

Seahawks -10 vs Lions 5 units

I still am not too confident in the Seahawks overall this year, but it’s hard to ever bet against the powerful home field advantage that they have.  Lions lost by 10+ against the Chargers, I think the struggles should be similar here.

Lock of the Week

Giants +5 at Bills 20 units

Do we really trust Rex Ryan to hold onto success off of a blow-off win without LeSean Mccoy and Sammy Watkins? I say no. That stadium shouldn’t be too Bills biased either given that it will be in New York.

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Week 3 NFL Picks

Fuck the Eagles. Sam Bradford, who I own on four of five fantasy teams, damn near gave me brain cancer with his performance last game. Seriously, though, what was this shit? These guys ruined my Lock of the Week pick against a very mediocre Cowboys team that lost the heart of its offense in Tony Romo midway through the game… in Philly. My high hopes for this team aren’t completely dashed yet, but they’re getting there.

That loser as my LoTW capped off a rather uninspiring 9-7 week against the spread. David killed it up until the primetime games, going 11-5 and nailing his LoTW in the Browns -1.5 against the Titans. Let’s get it on!

Tucci’s Week 3 Picks (20-13-0, 1-1-0, +240 units)

Giants -3 vs Redskins 10 units

I wasn’t super confident the Giants would cover given the ending of their last two games, but I probably should have been. An experienced Tom Coughlin always seems to figure things out when his team’s back is against the wall. The Redskins are just simply inferior personnel-wise on both sides of the ball compared to the Giants, in addition with the fact that they have to play on the road. There were a lot of red flags here. Continue reading

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Week 2 NFL Picks

Week 1 is in the books, and what a week it was. Both David and I finished way in the positive in terms of units, and I finished over .500 ATS overall. This week, however, may be a change in fortune for both of us as almost every match up seems very competitive. On to the picks.

Tucci’s Week 2 Picks (11-6-0; Lock of the Week 1-0-0; +275 units)

Broncos +3 at Chiefs 100 units

I actually bet this game as a pick’em BEFORE the Week 1 games commenced, so I stuck with it. My rationalization was that Peyton always beats the Chiefs (his winning percentage is higher against Kansas City than any other team at 13-1) and the Broncos defense is one of the three best in the league (which they seem to be proving that thus far). This game could have gone either way if Jamaal Charles doesn’t fumble away the game in the final seconds. Unfortunate.

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Week 1 NFL Picks

The best drama on TV is back for yet another season.
No, Game of Thrones didn’t get renewed. Fuck that show, I hate that show. I’m referring to the 50th season of the National Footbaw League (well it technically started Thursday, but let’s pretend like I didn’t just come up with the idea for this blog on Friday). Like the true degenerate that I am, I’m going to be wagering lots of money this particular season, so I decided to record my picks against the spread (ATS) along with my friend David’s. David is too pussy to actually put money down, so I let him in on the fun as well so he can feel like he accomplished something when a pick finally goes his way.

We’re going to provide a pick ATS as well as units wagered for each and every game from here on out, as well as our thoughts on each game. Concluding each of our picks will be our Lock of the Week pick citing the game we feel most confident about. The remaining weeks’ picks will be published every Saturday, with David and I recording our Thursday picks with each other. Simple as that.

Before this turns into a 10,000 word intro akin to that fuck, Matthew Berry, in his columns, let’s just cut the shit and get on to the picks.

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NBA Midseason Hardware & Predictions

With All-Star weekend marking the midway point in the season, I figured it’s time to give away some midseason awards. Continue reading

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