NFL Week 11 Shit Picks

Last week was easily the worst week I’ve had all year. Almost all the dogs won outright! Vegas made bank, son. Let’s try and take some of that green back this week.

Tucci’s Week 11 Picks (78-66-4, Lock of the Week 6-4, +305 units)

Titans +3 at Jaguars 5 units

Colts +5 at Falcons 10 units

Once again, I can’t stand by the Falcons when they’re giving up more than a field goal. This team just doesn’t score as much as they should offensively, in addition to the fact that I sort of like Indianapolis a bit more with old man Hasselbeck at the helm. He’s nowhere near as skilled as Andrew Luck, but he’s also nowhere near as ballsy which is what has partially ruined Luck’s season this year. He just wasn’t taking care of the ball.

Ravens -2.5 vs Rams 5 units

This game is set perfectly. I’m almost positive this will come down to a field goal. Both of these teams are built to stop each other defensively – the Rams are an all-around defense while the Ravens haven’t allowed more than 2 games with over 100 yards rushing. St. Louis is starting Case Keenum, which should be interesting, but I still can’t imagine he’s going to annihilate a below average Ravens secondary. The Rams just don’t have the personnel to do so. I like the Ravens here, simply because they’ve been getting unlucky the entire season.

Redskins +7.5 at Panthers 10 units

Man, if I can’t win this one it’s probably the last time I’m picking against the Panthers for the rest of the season. Vegas is juicing the Skins’ line, so I like it as well as the fact that Washington just hangs around every game they play. They have an underrated defense and offense. QB Kirk Cousins isn’t bad, he’s just average, which should be good enough for them to stay within a TD.

The Skins enjoy grind out games, and this will be one of them, as Cam Newton still has no one to throw to 11 weeks into the season.

Broncos -1 at Bears 20 units

The Bears have been proving both me and David wrong in the past 4 games. Are they actually a solid team? Unfortunately, yes, meaning the Bears will probably be out of the running for a top 10 draft pick the team so desperately needs. Chicago has a fantastic coaching staff on all phases – just not the personnel to be elite. Denver will be starting that asshole from Twilight, Brock Osweiler, who has shown some stuff every time he’s got to play. He sucked last week in relief of the awful Peyton Manning, but I will give him a pass since he was thrown into the game abruptly. My one concern here is the John Fox and Adam Gase’s knowledge of the Denver system, which may make it easier to foil their elite defense and perplex the debut of Osweiler as a starter. However, I don’t believe stud WR Alshon Jeffery will be suiting up, leaving Cutler without anyone except Martellus Bennett to toss it to. If Jeffery does play, I would consider betting the other side.

Lions -1 vs Raidahs 5 units

This has trap bet written all over it. The public has to be favoring Oakland here, right? The caveat here is it’s another west-to-east game, which bodes well for the home team. Not to mention Detroit is built to a team constructed like the Raiders, who have an awful secondary. This one should be a shootout.

Jets -3 at Texans 25 units

I think the Jets are getting fantastic value here. Not only are they coming off a long week, but Houston is coming off a grind-it-out Monday Night Football affair in which they shockingly upset the formerly undefeated Bengals. There’s huge letdown potential from them after such a big win. Oh, they also came off the bye for that game as well, which always seems to make a difference. Can we really trust T.J. Yates? Revis needs to stay on Nuk Hopkins all game if the Jets want to take this one.

Dolphins +1 vs Cowboys 5 units

I don’t like this game one bit. It’s hard to get a read on the Cowboys, who have Tony Romo coming back since his injury in Week 2. Will he be rusty? Is he fully recovered? I don’t like laying money on teams with too many question marks. Stay away.

Eagles -6 vs Buccaneers 25 units

I can’t help but take the Eagles every week considering the flashes they show. As soon as Mark Sanchez stepped into the game for the oft-injured Sam Bradford, the Eagles offense looked how it did in 2014: quick throws, quick first downs, and constant red zone trips. Sanchez might be what the Eagles need right now – a QB that can actually use his legs, something Sam Bradford was never able to do. Chip Kelly’s system really favors running QBs, as the read option keeps the defense honest, opening up the passing lanes at will if run successfully.

On the other hand, I hate trusting Jameis Winston against a talented defensive front that causes turnovers. Would it shock you if he threw four picks tomorrow? Wouldn’t shock me.

Chargers +3 vs Chiefs 15 units

There’s still something stinky to me about this Chiefs team. Yes, they just destroyed the Broncos last week, but can we really put it all on Kansas City? Peyton Manning was literally handing them field position on a silver platter and the Chiefs took advantage. Also I LOVE teams off bye, especially home dogs off a bye.

Niners +13.5 at Seahawks 10 units

Another bye week team getting major points. Last week we saw Houston dismantle Cincinnati as 11 point dogs, this week I like the Niners to stay within 10 of an overrated Seahawks squad that has looked extremely beatable at home this entire season.

Cardinals -4.5 vs Bengals 5 units

We all saw what Andy Dalton looks like in a primetime game once again last week. The Red BB Gun will suck, I’m sure of it.

Bills +7.5 at Patriots 5 units

I feel the Patriots are extremely vulnerable whenever Vegas doesn’t make them double digit favorites. I think Brady will have a real tough time in the pocket this week and should throw a pick or two. Pats by 3.

Tucci’s Lock of the Week

Packers +1 at Vikings 75 units

For real, can Aaron Rodgers really lose four in a row? No way in hell. The Vikings are a great team, no doubt, but changes must’ve been made in Green Bay this week. I expect Rodgers to be dinking and dunking down the field all day in Minny. Linval Joseph and that defensive line aren’t anything to mess with, and Rodgers hopefully will get the ball out of his hands as soon as humanly possible.

David’s Week 11 Picks (71-73-4, Lock of the Week 6-4-0, +52.5 units)

Titans +3 at Jaguars 5 units

Colts +5 at Falcons 10 units

Ravens -2.5 vs Rams 15 units

Panthers -7.5 vs Redskins 30 units

Lions -1 vs Raiders 10 units

Texans +3 vs Jets 50 units

Cowboys -1 at Dolphins 5 units

Eagles -6 vs Buccaneers 35 units

Chargers +3 vs Chiefs 5 units

Packers +1 at Vikings 5 units

Niners +13.5 at Seahawks 40 units

Bengals +4.5 at Cardinals 20 units

Patriots -7.5 vs Bills 10 units

David’s Lock of the Week

Broncos -1 at Bears 70 units

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