NFL Week 10 Shit Picks

Tucci’s Week 10 Picks (74-56-4, Lock of the Week 6-3, +450 units)

Jets -2 vs Bills 5 units

Jaguars +5 at Ravens 5 units

I’m going against  a few of my personal rules with this pick. Usually, I never pick against a home team off the bye, but I’m really high on this Jags team that can really air it out, which is the Ravens biggest flaw on defense. Allen Robinson is damn near uncoverable, so I’m expecting a huge day once again from him and Bortles. This one should be decided by a field goal.

Packers -10.5 vs Lions 15 units

Whoa boy, you have to think the Packers are going to be pissed coming into this one, right? After a tough loss to the Panthers, the Packers offense should feel good against a shitty Lions defense. Despite the Lions coming off a bye, they just don’t have the personnel to cover in a game where Rodgers can potentially throw five TDs.

Eagles -6 vs Dolphins 25 units

EAGLES BABY! The birds covered last week for my 75 unit Lock pick, looking great on offense in the process. It only took 9 weeks for people to realize that Sam Bradford wasn’t the entire problem. The onus can be attributed to his slippery-handed receivers. I expect Bradford to get tons of time in the pocket once again, you just have to hope his WRs aren’t droppy as usual. The Dolphins are very run heavy under interim head coach Dan Campbell, which doesn’t bode well against an elite run-stopping Eagles defense. Eagles by 14.

Browns +5.5 at Steelers 5 units

If Josh McCown is back in the fold, I immediately feel this Browns team is undervalued by Vegas in this match up as well as this entire season. Johnny Crackhead actually looked alright as a pocket passer at times against Cincy, but I wouldn’t fully invest on the Browns unless McCown is in. Pittsburgh will be without Big Ben, so it wouldn’t shock me if DeAngelo Williams were to set the rushing record against this porous defense. But I still expect the Browns to keep it close through an aerial attack, especially with McCown.

Rams -7 vs Bears 10 units

Is this Bears team actually alright? It seems like it. However, the Rams defense is flat out scary this season. From what I’ve watched, they’re the most physical in the league. Rookie RB Jeremy Langford won’t have nearly as successful of a day as he did against the weak Chargers. I expect Alshon Jeffery to be covered tightly all game (if he plays). If Jeffery is out, the Rams should take this one easily by double digits. And let’s be real, is Todd Gurley going to get anything under 150 yards in this one?

Cowboys +1 at Buccaneers 20 units

I feel as if the Bucs always fuck up when you least expect them to, and cover when you least expect them to. The Cowboys put up a very valiant effort against a tough Eagles team, so I like them against a softer defense as well as against a very mistake-prone rookie QB in Jameis Winston, who has been up and down thus far this year. The Cowboys should be able to turn back the clock to last year by controlling the game on the ground with their elite offensive line and the rejuvenated Darren McFadden behind it.

Titans +4.5 vs Panthers 5 units

You gotta think the public is all over Carolina here, especially after basically spanking the Packers for 50 minutes last week. I’m not buying it this week, though. I feel the Panthers are due for a letdown game against a Titans team that has covered in games no one expected them to. Tennessee isn’t awful against the run, which is sort of all you need to keep it close against the Panthers.

Redskins -1 vs Saints 10 units

Another game where you have to think the public is heavy on the Saints, despite playing like trash most of the year. I just can’t fuck with their wack ass defense that gives up more scores than a sorority girl on molly. The Skins should be able to control the ground game with ease in this one.

Raidahs -3 vs Vikings 10 units

The Vikings (7-1 ATS) and Raidahs (5-3 ATS) have been cover machines this year. However, at this point, Vegas has realized their actual value so we’re going to have to move on after this match up. Derek Carr has the absolute best pass blocking in the league, and I don’t think Minnesota’s DBs are good enough to cover Cooper and Crabtree without a pass rush. Raiders eek this one out (or push).

Broncos -4.5 vs Chiefs 25 units

Ugh, my balls are shrinking back into my stomach with this pick. Why? Because Andy Reid is 14-2 off of byes. But has that big red fucker ever had to face a defense as potent at Denver’s? Most likely not. This is a complete “going-against-the-grain” pick but that’s how Vegas rakes in the dollars: by taking advantage of what seem to be “obvious plays.” I don’t fuck with historical record stats anyways. The context is 100% different this time around.

Cardinals +3 at Seattle 5 units

I actually think the Cards can pull off the upset. Seattle just doesn’t look dominant this year, even at home. Visions of that Detroit game come back, and it’s clear that this is a very beatable team week to week if you have the personnel to do so, which Arizona has.

Texans +11.5 at Bengals 5 units

Hey, wacky shit happens on Monday Night Football. Maybe this is when Andy Dalton finally does his usual fuck up on the big stage for the season. I just like taking teams not named the Lions with a double digit cushion. Cincinnati is the deepest team in football and should surely WIN this game, but the Texans have a lot of garbage time potential to get a backdoor cover.

Tucci’s Lock of the Week

Patriots -7.5 vs Giants 50 units

What the fuck?!

David’s Week 10 Picks (63-67-4, Lock of the Week 5-4-0, +17.5 units)

Jets -2 vs Bills 5 units

Ravens -5 vs Jaguars 10 units

Lions +10.5 at Packers 5 units

Dolphins +6 at Eagles 5 units

Browns +5.5 at Steelers 5 units

Bears +7 at Rams 10 units

Buccaneers -1 vs Cowboys 5 units

Redskins -1 vs Saints 5 units

Raidahs -3 vs Vikings 5 units

Chiefs +4.5 at Broncos 5 units

Patriots -7.5 at Giants 10 units

Cardinals +3 at Seahawks 5 units

Note: David’s dumbass didn’t choose a pick in the Panthers-Titans game. Counts as loss for 0 units.

David’s Lock of the Week

Texans +11.5 at Bengals 20 units

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