Another week is in the books, and it was yet another week where I was over .500 and positive in units (8-6-0, +70u)! I’m not a big fan of this week’s slate of games, I feel Vegas is going to come really close on a lot of these games.
Tucci’s Week 8 Picks (61-42-3, Lock of the Week 5-2-0, +440 units)
Patriots -8 vs Dolphins 10 units
Lions +3.5 at Chiefs (London) 5 units
This is a real tough one, specifically because it’s at a neutral stadium. Both of these teams are pretty *trash emoji*, but I feel like this would be a gimme if Kansas City was at Arrowhead. The Lions are structurally built to beat the Chiefs. Detroit LOVES to air that shit out. Stafford blindly throws the football to Megatron and friends all day. Kansas City’s secondary is on its last legs. I’m not convinced the Chiefs could move the ball down the field easily without Jamaal Charles, either. Detroit HAS to cover, right? Right?
Falcons -7.5 vs Buccaneers 5 units
I can’t even make a case for the Falcons covering here, but I have an inkling Vegas knows shit I don’t. The Falcons have looked very mediocre the past few weeks, barely edging out a Zach Mettenberger-led Titans team last week and losing to a bad Saints team the week prior. I actually think Atlanta’s defense will perplex Jameis in this one, causing him to cough up the ball a few times en route to some scores and a blowout. What scares me is if Tampa Bay gets Doug Martin going early, which can spell trouble for not only the Falcons chances to cover but to win the game outright.
Ravens -3.5 vs Chargers 5 units
Historically NFL teams who travel West to East don’t fare well. I don’t like the Ravens very much this year, but they should have no problem running all over the Chargers generous run defense.
Bears +1 vs Vikings 5 units
This seems like a trap bet all day. I can’t imagine there’s much money on the Bears in Vegas but these are the kind of games that Vegas makes a killing on. The Vikings have a tough defense but are one of the bottom five teams in DVOA, so they may not be as good as everyone thinks. I truly believe they have a great defense but the offense can be stopped if you can contain AP. The Bears D is randomly alright this season, so this should be a low-scoring affair.
Cardinals -6 at Browns 5 units
Arizona looked like hot garbage against the Ravens last Monday, but they have a tendency to come into other teams’ homes and wrecking them. Here’s another chance.
Texans -4 vs Titans 5 units
Houston has to be sick of this shit right? This team has been a punching bag for a lot of teams this season, it seems like. They’ve given up 44 and 48 in games against the Dolphins and Falcons, respectively. I just feel that this is a statement game for them at home against a very beatable team. You’d have to be a degenerate to actually bet this game though, it can go either way honestly.
Giants +3 at Saints 5 units
Are we going to get awesome Drew Brees or shitty Drew Brees? I’ll take shitty Drew Brees, because that’s what I’ve become accustomed to this season. This game is a pain in the ass to pick, because both teams look Jekyll and Hyde often every year. I’m also banking on JPP and his paw to give New York some semblance of a pass rush. Don’t wager money on this one.
Steelers -1 vs Bengals 5 units
This will be quite a game. Like I said in previous posts, playing at Heinz isn’t easy whatsoever. The Bengals are a legitimate team but their hot streak will come to an end this Sunday, unfortunately.
Rams -8 vs Niners 15 units
I really hate when the Rams give up a lot of points, because I just don’t trust the offense if Gurley isn’t effective. He won’t be getting 130 yards every single game, but the Rams defense at home going against a real shitty Niners offense has me sold that the Niners will barely crack double digits in this one. I would be shocked if the Niners could get more than two offensive touchdowns.
Jets -3 at Oakland 10 units
This will also be an interesting one. If you’ve read me before, I’m a big fan of this Raiders team and it’s high flying offense. Derek Carr can actually drop back 45 times and not lose the game. The Jets seem pretty set on both rush defense and pass defense, so I’m envisioning a few Carr picks that will give New York opportunities to take this one.
Seahawks -4.5 at Dallas 25 units
Something about playing at Dallas gives me a neutral field vibe. Is it the lackluster fans? The Cowboys are getting Dez Bryant back, but to me he doesn’t matter much when Tony Romo isn’t tossing him the pigskin. Seattle should have no problem winning this one by at least a tuddy, in my opinion.
Colts +7 at Carolina 10 units
This Colts team is pretty trash, but I like taking Andrew Luck’s side when given at least a touchdown or more. He’s not afraid to drop back and take shots no matter what the situation is, and the Carolina O isn’t going to be scoring 45 points any time soon. I smell a backdoor cover.
Tucci’s Lock of the Week
Packers -2.5 at Broncos 40 units
The best QB in the league versus the best defense in the league should make for quite an entertaining show. The Broncos have been capitalizing all year off of takeaways, and I just don’t see Rodgers making more than one vital mistake max. Peyton Manning moving the ball down the field this year has been a disaster, and Green Bay’s defense is no slouch. I like the Pack, 24-17.
David’s Week 8 Picks (52-51-3, Lock of the Week 5-2-0, +97.5 units)
Dolphins +8 at Patriots 5 units
Chiefs -3.5 vs Lions (London) 5 units
Buccaneers +7.5 at Falcons 5 units
Vikings -1 at Bears 5 units
Browns +6 vs Cardinals 5 units
Titans +4 at Texans 5 units
Saints -3 vs Giants 5 units
Bengals -1 at Steelers 5 units
Niners +8 at Rams 5 units
Raiders +3 vs Jets 5 units
Seahawks -4.5 at Cowboys
Packers -2.5 at Broncos
Panthers -7 vs Colts
David’s Lock of the Week
Ravens -3.5 vs Chargers 20 units