Week 7 NFL Picks

Once again, I had no time to do any real research last week, but I still managed to go positive in units and 6-7-1 and I fucked up my Lock of the Week. This week I was able to take in a good amount of game film and hopefully I can be back to over .500 again.

Tucci’s Week 7 Picks (53-36-3, Lock of the Week 4-2-0, +360 units)

Seahawks -6.5 at Niners 5 units

Jaguars +4.5 vs Bills (London) 5 units

I’m not buying this Bills squad when it’s led by E.J. Manuel. He’s pretty awful at throwing the football, forcing the Bills to go run heavy while facing a defense that’s above average against the run. The Jags seem to always jag in any game I pick them to cover, but that means they’re due, right?

Lions +2 vs Vikings 5 units

This number has trap written all over it. The average fan would think the Vikes take this game easy, but I feel Detroit can turn on their offense and put points up on the board. Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t seem to be built to score in bunches (he wins grind outs). I feel the Lions score early and often and the Purple People Eaters won’t be able to climb back.

Colts -4 vs Saints 15 units

There’s definitely value to be had on the Colts here, as they keep losing which may equate to losing respect in Vegas. This one will be a barn burner, but I can’t trust the shaky Saints offense to keep up with Andrew Luck, who has been steadily improving after a below average start to the season. Drew Brees looks washed, fam. I can’t comfortably bet the Saints against an offensive juggernaut.

Chiefs -3 vs Steelers 10 units

The public is going to be heavy on the Steelers here, I’d imagine, after the Chiefs blew yet another close game and the Steelers did the opposite, beating an upstart Cardinals team after Landry Jones relieved Mike Vick’s wack ass midway through the game. Jones isn’t much better than Vick, and I feel the Chiefs can’t possibly blow another one at home.

Dolphins -4 vs Texans 5 units

I’m still wary to fully invest in this Dolphins team. Miami looked fantastical in its game against Tennessee last week, putting up an eyebrow raising 38 points under new head coach Dan Campbell and defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. Do teams have enough information on their game plan now? It’s possible, but I’ll still take the Phins at home against a pretty shitty team. The upside is just too high.

Jets +7.5 at Patriots 25 units

I really really like this Jets team. This team seems to have all of the important phases of the game figured out (strong defense, strong run game). Brady and his shapeshifting offensive line will have little time to throw. A little birdy tells me that Brady is going to get hit A LOT in this one. The Jets will give New England a patented scare at home. Can see a last-second field goal deciding this one.

Browns +6.5 at Rams 10 units

I think the Rams take this game for sure, but at a margin closer to 4 rather than 6-7. The Rams are coming off a bye and are at home, two great signs. Also, word to Todd Gurley’s fantasy owners: whip out your cocks, daddy ordered a 20 piece. Gurley should absolutely feast on a generous Cleveland run defense. Too bad I can’t trust the volatile Nicky Foles, otherwise I’d be all over the Rams ATS. Take them in your eliminator pool though!

Falcons -6 at Titans 10 units

Can Wacky Zacky Mettenberger pull off the unthinkable and cover in a spot start against one of the hottest teams in the NFL? I don’t think so. He wasn’t bad at all as a rookie, but I just can’t see him keeping up with the high-flying Falcons offense for 60 minutes.

Redskins -3.5 vs Buccaneers 20 units

I think this Skins team has a better-than-you-think defense. The run defense is stout, and the DBs know how to strip and force fumbles. This Bucs team is still young and heavily reliant on the run. First overall pick Jameis has looked like a rookie thus far. I think the Skins control time of possession easily and win by 6.

Raidahs +3.5 at Chargahs 10 units

This game scares me, as San Diego has looked quite strong the last two weeks (despite losing). The Raiders, however, are coming off a bye and will likely have enough fans in San Diego to turn this into a neutral site game. Rivers generally struggles against Oakland, even when they were bad, so I like this one to be close.

Cowboys +3 at Giants 5 units

This is a toss up to me, but I think Matt Cassel may surprise and toss a few tuddies in this one. The Cowboys defense is strong, and I feel Eli will continue to struggle throwing the ball.

Ravens +10 at Cardinals 25 units

How in the world? The Cardinals are good, but they’re not THIS good. I can’t see the Cardinals losing in any scenario here, but I think the Ravens have lost too many close games to be considered a double digit dog against anyone other than maybe the Patriots. This seems like free money.

Tucci’s Lock of the Week

Panthers -3 vs Eagles 50 units

Are we missing something here about the Eagles? I can no longer trust Sammy B after last week’s mess, even though they covered by a mile (and I made money off it!). The Panthers defense is as legit as it gets, and I don’t see Demarco Murray finding any easy running lanes here. The Eagles front line on defense looked as strong as anyone’s last week, but putting a mobile QB like Cam Newton in the mix throws a monkey wrench into the whole situation. I just can’t see the Eagles consistently putting up points due to poor ball protection. Panthers by a lot.

David’s Week 7 Picks (44-45-3, Lock of the Week 4-2-0, +72.5 units)

Niners +6.5 vs Seahawks 5 units

Jaguars +4.5 vs Bills (London) 10 units

Lions +2 vs Vikings 10 units

Colts -4 vs Saints 5 units

Chiefs -3 vs Steelers 5 units

Texans +4 at Miami 5 units

Jets +7.5 at Patriots 5 units

Browns +6.5 at Rams 5 units

Falcons -6 at Titans 5 units

Buccaneers +3.5 at Redskins 5 units

Raiders +3.5 at Chargers 5 units

Giants -3 vs Cowboys 5 units

Panthers -3 vs Eagles 5 units

David’s Lock of the Week

Ravens +10 at Cardinals 20 units

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