Week 6 NFL Shit Picks

Last week was a shitshow, as both I and David were BUSY AS FUCK and couldn’t properly make any analysis for the games. I literally made my picks at 11:55 AM on Sunday. And I still went 6-5-2 not including Thursday. And I hit that Lock (Pats -8.5 at Cowboys) boa. I barely have enough time for analysis this week, and. David got a shitty job with shitty hours so he’s no longer able to write his generally wrong analysis. So here goes it.

Tucci’s Week 6 Picks (45-31-2, Lock of the Week 4-1-0, +345 units)

Falcons -3.5 at Saints 5 units

Bengals -3.5 at Bills 20 units

Is Vegas really giving the Bills this much of a shot with E.J. Manuel at the helm? This guy was benched for just about everyone in recent memory. LeSean McCoy is not 100%, and his backups aren’t shit either. I don’t see how this Bengals team is only a 3.5 favorite but whatever.

Vikings -4.5 vs Chiefs 25 units

I really like this Vikings team. It seems undervalued, especially at home against a team that just lost against one of the bottom 3 teams in the league in the Bears, as well as losing the heart of its offense, Jamaal Charles, to a torn ACL. The Vikings should have no problems scoring. The opposite goes for the Chiefs.

Jaguars -1.5 vs Texans 5 units

Both of these teams are pretty bad, but I’m more confident in Jacksonville’s scoring ability at this point, since neither of these teams can defend for shit. Expect about 45 Arian Foster/Nuk Hopkins touches in this one. Hopefully they only get 2 TDs instead of 4.

Lions -3 vs Bears 20 units

Yes, the Lions got anally probed last week by the Cardinals (42 points given up at Ford Field). But a lot of it had to do with fluky turnovers by the Lions. Matt Stafford threw 3 picks, but only one of them was a truly awful throw. Everything seemed to be going wrong for the Lions and I don’t think that will happen two weeks in a row. This is also the point when their schedule opens up, as they’ve faced San Diego, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle and Arizona to start the season, all top flight passing defenses. Somehow the Bears rank in the top 5 for this, but we all know they’re really not that good. It’s the Bears! Lions bounce back and win 24-20.

Redskins +7 at Jets 10 units

The Foreskins have been a cover machine this year, it seems. It wasn’t easy picking against a team that’s coming off a bye and is playing at home, but I feel 7 is a bit much to give against a team that generally stays in games. Both of these teams are run oriented and defensive, so I just don’t see this getting out of hand either way.

Steelers +4.5 vs Cardinals 5 units

This game has trap bet written all over it. I’d have to imagine the public is HEAVY on Arizona here, after what they’ve been doing to opponents so far this season. Pittsburgh barely beat a weak San Francisco team, but I really feel like the value here lies in playing at Pittsburgh, a hostile environment. As long as the Steelers can protect the football, they should be able to stay within reach the entire game. The Cardinals have been blessed with great starting field position in a lot of games they’ve played, which led to their big scores.

Titans -1.5 vs Dolphins 5 units

You’d be a psychopath to lay any large amount of money on this game. The Dolphins have basically hit the reset button, so will they be as awesome as they could be? Or will they be even worse than before? I’ll take the home favorite all day here.

Seahawks -7 vs Panthers 5 units

This is my hate game of the week. These two teams are constructed very similarly. Seattle has been looking very beatable as of late, but I feel this will be a statement game for them after pretty much blowing the game against Detroit last time at home. Carolina will struggle to find any sort of offense in this one I feel.

Packers -10.5 vs Chargers 5 units

Can anyone comfortably take a team playing at Lambeau right now? I can’t.

Niners +2 vs Ravens 10 units

Both of these teams are a mess, but I feel the Niners defense is a different beast at home. The Ravens are banged up on offense and may have to resort to their 2nd string players at all key position other than QB, which is a recipe for disaster.

Colts +9.5 vs Patriots 5 units

This might be the game Vegas makes a killing on. There’s no doubt the public has to be at least 90% in on New England. I also like this to be the Andrew Luck bounce back game we’ve been waiting for all season. Patriots will win in a shootout, but not by much.

Eagles -4.5 vs Giants 10 units

The Eagles are this year’s R-E-L-A-X team. It wasn’t smart to think they’d be scoring 35 a game from Week 1 with an entirely new crop of players on offense. It’s Week 6 and the offensive line is finally coming around, so I think the Eagles murder the Giants here both through the air and ground.

Tucci’s Lock of the Week

Broncos -4.5 at Browns 35 units

Peyton’s noodle ass arm makes these Broncos games automatically close it seems, but the difference for me this week will be the Swiss cheese Browns defense that may finally allow fantasy bust C.J. Anderson to finally top 3.5 yards per carry this year. If Manning can get his run game going, he should be able to lead this offense to at least 5 red zone trips. Josh McCown played the game of his life last week, throwing for 457 yards on a weakened Ravens defense. I’d be shocked if McCown threw for even half that on this elite Denver D. Broncs by a lot.

David’s Week 6 Picks (37-39-2, Lock of the Week 4-1-0, +87.5 units)

Falcons -3.5 at Saints 5 units

Broncos -4.5 at Browns 5 units

Bengals -3.5 at Bills 5 units

Chiefs +4.5 at Vikings 5 units

Jaguars -1.5 vs Texans 5 units

Bears +3 at Lions 5 units

Steelers +4.5 vs Cardinals 5 units

Titans -1.5 vs Dolphins 10 units

Panthers +7 at Seahawks 10 units

Chargers +10.5 at Packers 5 units

Niners +2 vs Ravens 5 units

Patriots -9.5 at Colts 5 units

Eagles -4.5 vs Giants 5 units

David’s Lock of the Week

Redskins +7 at Jets 20 units

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