Week 4 NFL Shit Picks

What a time. To be alive. I absolutely killed it last week, going 10-6 and nailing my Lock (PIT +1 at STL) while David scored the inverse of both. This is the week where Vegas figures it out, it seems, so hopefully my streak of going over .500 stays intact. Also, shoutout to Sammy B and the Eagles gettin’ it done last week as I irrationally predicted they would. Now watch them fuck it all up again when they play a weak Redskins team.

Tucci’s Week 4 Picks (29-20-0, Lock of the Week 2-1-0, +280 units)

Steelers +2.5 vs Ravens 5 units

Fire that motherfucker Todd Haley and that motherfucker Josh Scobee too (the Steelers released Scobee yesterday). The Steelers had this one wrapped up multiple times, but thanks to a strange 4th-and-1 play call which had Michael Vick throwing because of the distrust in Scobee’s inaccurate leg (he missed a very easy 40 yard field goal to essentially seal the game). Whatever. This was basically a tie game but will instead be an L thanks to some horrific luck.

Jets -2 at Dolphins (London) 10 units

This is one of the tougher games this week, as both teams are at a neutral site and the Dolphins are playing way shittier than everyone thought they would this year. Someone needs to get Jonathan Papelbon to strangle Joe Philbin’s sorry ass for his inability to coach this group of players to success. I have a feeling the Dolphins will be JET-LAGGED (haha, get it?) coming into this one, causing this game to be run heavy on both sides. Lamar Miller can’t get anything going and I don’t foresee him getting anything going this week either. Poor Lamar.

Falcons -6 vs Texans 15 units

Atlanta surprisingly hasn’t fallen from its peak it usually does after Week 1. Good job Matt Ryan, you finally figured out that if you force feed the ball to Julio Jones even when he’s covered by 10 guys you will still have success. If Arian Foster returns, this game gets a bit more interesting but I feel Foster will miss just one more week to be safe. Falcons in a landslide.

Giants +5 at Bills 10 units

I think Tom Coughlin has this team in the zone defensively in addition to the fact New York is coming off a very long week of rest and preparation. The Bills will likely be without Sammy Watkins, who is the only real WR on Buffalo that could’ve caused the Giants a headache. Also, Shady McCoy will be sitting this one as well, but backup rookie RB Karlos Williams isn’t much worse. I think this will be a low-scoring one, eye the under.

Raiders -3.5 at Bears 25 units

One team I have really fallen in love with over the past few years is the Raiders, and they’re finally looking like they’ve figured out how to play AND draft, which I’m sure sounds unheard of to anyone who has followed this team over the past decade. Derek Carr is the real deal ladies and gentleman. His offensive line gives him tons of time, and Amari Cooper just flat out gets open most of the time. The Bears are pretty much in full on tank mode (as they should be), after trading away guys like Jared Allen and Jonathan Bostic this week to stockpile draft picks. Imagine if GM Ryan Pace is able to unload Cutler soon as well. This would be the happiest 2-14 fanbase of all time, undoubtedly. This might be the week Oakland starts getting respect from Vegas.

Bengals -4 vs Chiefs 15 units

Is Cincinnati the 2nd best team in the AFC behind New England? I think this week will be very telling. The Chiefs are coming off a short week where they played a really bad game in Green Bay. They also lost their slot corner to an ACL tear, which is really bad news considering they let a scrub like James Jones completely annihilate them last week. AJ Green must be licking his chops.

Jaguars +9 at Colts 15 units

This Colts team has been an absolute nightmare this season. Andrew Luck looks to have taken a step backwards somehow, as he ranks in the bottom tier of QBs through three games. Yes, the Jaguars aren’t good either, but I don’t think the disparity between these two teams is anywhere close to 9 points. I expect a barn burner here, with the Colts edging the Jaguars out by a few.

Redskins +3 vs Eagles, 5 units

The public is going to be all over Philly in this one after seeing how both teams performed last weekend, which is why I’m all in on Washington. The Skins are a different team at home, and always look to shut down the opposition’s run game, which Philly is reliant on to run their offense efficiently. Sammy Fuckface is going to have to toss the ol’ pigskin 50+ times in this one probably, unless, in a worst-case scenario, the Eagles line comes to play and opens up lanes for Murray/Mathews. But I’m not banking on that happening twice in a row on the road against proven run-stopping defenses.

Browns +7 at Chargers, 10 units

I feel as if last week was Josh McCown’s warm up week. He was by no means great at any point, but he did end up looking better and better as the game went on. The Chargers aren’t a very good team, and I just can’t lay that many points with them, even at home.

Cardinals -7.5 vs Rams, 25 units

The Cards have been on a tear to open the season, moving into Super Bowl-contender territory in the process. No one expected this offense to be THIS good, as they’ve put up 31, 48 and 47 points in each game respectively. No, they haven’t faced any real defenses yet (Saints, Bears, Niners) but scoring that many points in the NFL says a lot, no matter who it’s against. I would probably take the points if the Rams were at home, but I just can’t until the Cards prove that they’re not really as good as they’ve looked.

Broncos -7 vs Vikings, 20 units

People keep doubting this Broncos team this year, but I’m going to stick with them through this high point spread. Yes, Peyton isn’t the same, physically, but he is still as strong as ever mentally and gets the job done on offense. As I’ve stated in prior weeks, this Denver defense may be the best in the league and is most certainly deserving of a top three ranking thus far. Minnesota won’t be able to move the ball through the air when they need to in this one, and I don’t see Adrian Peterson running where he wants like he has been doing.

Niners +9 vs Packers, 5 units

This pick may blow up in my face as the Niners are probably at their worst ever in the past five seasons. It would not shock me if Green Bay won by 35 but I feel that Kaepernick will just get a bunch of garbage time TDs a la Alex Smith to keep it closer than the score indicates. I’m not trying to buy into the history between these two, because fuck history. It’s all about now. And right now the Niners suck cock and the Packers are the complete opposite.

Saints -3 vs Cowboys, 20 units

The Saints clearly are underperforming, and I’m banking on them getting it together this week. Brees is back, and he’s had enough games with this offense to know who’s who at this point. Also, at 0-3, you’d have to think the Saints show a sense of urgency at home.

Seahawks -10 vs Lions, 35 units

Detroit has been a mess thus far. Stafford is making Megatron look average out there, which is pretty damn hard to do. Seattle is once again at home, which is an automatic L, and Detroit will struggle to find the end zone more than once (like most offenses), which makes this entire bet about whether Russ Wilson can put up enough points here to cover. We only need about 20-24 from ya Russ.

Lock of the Week

Panthers -3.5 at Buccaneers, 50 units

Do I smell a trap bet? Or is Vegas just unimpressed by Carolina’s showing last week against the Luke McCown-led Saints? Either way, I still think Jameis Winston is trash and I don’t think he’ll be able to get much going against a stingy Panthers defense. David was burned by the cats as his lock last week, but I believe in them this week. The Panthers should win handily.

David’s Week 4 Picks (24-24-1, Lock of the Week 2-1-0, +42.5 units)

Well, that week was quite the disaster. Of course, I did say that I was due for a bad week last week, and unsurprisingly, the games were really chalky last week and I took a beating. If you actually bet all my picks straight without my confidence you would be in the negative since you have to be over 52.3% betting 11 to make 10 to turn a profit. Fortunately the confidence units would probably bring you slightly into the positive, for now.

Steelers +2.5 vs Ravens 5 units

Dolphins +2 vs Jets 5 units

This game should be an ugly one since the players will be half awake with the early start time in London. Being in London also should also nullify the home advantage some for the Dolphins. I still think the game will be close and the Dolphins seem due for some better luck, like the Ravens on Thursday.

Falcons -6 vs Texans 5 units

The Falcons are really hot right now, even though they have gotten all their wins in a close or come-from-behind fashion. Don’t underestimate good coaching, even if Arian Foster comes back and runs all over that awful Falcons D.

Raiders -3.5 at Bears 5 units

I would probably take the Bears here if I thought that Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery were playing. Unfortunately, they are not, and the Bears seem like they are beginning their tanking by trading away Jared Allen and Jon Bostic. It will be a full-on fire sale soon if the Bears keep losing games.

Bengals -4 vs Chiefs 5 units

This year I’m trusting in the Bengals as they have not let me down yet. I probably will only shy away from this team if they play a prime-time game, as Andy Dalton seems to regress into a high-school quarterback when that occurs. It will be interesting to see how much better the Chiefs passing defense will be now that they get one of the league’s better corners back in Sean Smith.

Jaguars +9 at Colts 5 units

The Jags are not good at all. This is just a bet on the fact that the Colts have not been so great either and will be missing a large portion of their secondary aside from Vontae Davis. Allen Hurns and Rashad Greene will probably have pretty solid games fantasy wise, if you’re into that stuff.

Panthers -3.5 at Buccaneers 10 units

I am struggling to see how this game will be decided by a field goal, but I missed on the Carolina “lock” last week, so don’t take my word for it. The Panthers just feel like a far superior team all around, outside of receivers.

Redskins +3 vs Eagles 5 units

Upset alert, these teams seem to trade wins against each other every game, so just take the points and home team and hope for the best.

Chargers -7 vs Browns 5 units

To be honest, I don’t think the Chargers really match up too well against the Browns. The Browns have a better pass defense than rushing while the Chargers offense goes through the air when it is clicking. The Browns also run the ball a lot and the Chargers don’t have the greatest run defense, as Adrian Peterson demonstrated last week.  I just assume that Josh McCown will implode against a pretty good pass defense on the road.

Vikings +7 at Broncos 20 units

I don’t see how the Broncos will cover this line unless they get their run game going and Teddy Bridgewater gets totally rattled. Peyton has shown he is not done yet, but the Broncos defense can be attacked on the ground as the Thursday night game showed in week 2. AP should keep the game close.

Rams +7.5 at Cardinals 5 units

The half point makes this bet easier for me. I don’t see how the Cardinals can keep blowing out team after team, especially when you consider how cake their schedule has been against the Saints, Bears, and Niners (combined 1-8 record). I think the Rams find a way to keep it close.

Niners +9 vs Packers 5 units

I’m just hoping the Niners have the magic touch against the Packers at home, they are 3-0 in the last three meetings with the Packers, making me think there is something about the Niners offense that the Packers struggle with. This pick has little to do with the eye test, as it would be hard to pick against the Packers or for the Niners after last game.

Cowboys +3 at Saints 5 units

Just because the Cowboys lost at home to the Falcons does not mean they should lose to the Saints on the road.  This line should be closer in my mind, but maybe Luke McCown is actually good and Weeden is just too bad?

Seahawks -10 vs Lions 5 units

I still am not too confident in the Seahawks overall this year, but it’s hard to ever bet against the powerful home field advantage that they have.  Lions lost by 10+ against the Chargers, I think the struggles should be similar here.

Lock of the Week

Giants +5 at Bills 20 units

Do we really trust Rex Ryan to hold onto success off of a blow-off win without LeSean Mccoy and Sammy Watkins? I say no. That stadium shouldn’t be too Bills biased either given that it will be in New York.

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