2016 NFL Super Contest Week 3

Ho-ly. Shit.

I went 0-5 last week. Easily my worst betting week of my life. Thankfully, I didn’t lose a shitload of real money. And once again, fuck the Eagles. Carson Wentz is nice, tho.

Tucci’s record 3-7 ATS, -8 units

Houston -1.5 at Patriots, 1 unit

This is one of the few interesting Thursday games on the slate thanks to the ascendance of the Texans, who may finally possess an offense that can beat one of Belichick’s defenses, which casually shut down the Texans last season, 29-6. Belichick, known for phasing out his opponents best weapons, held Deandre Hopkins to just 3 catches for 52 yards. Oh, and Hopkins was the Texans’ leading WR that game. Yikes. It’s 2016, however, and things change. Houston now has a multi-threat offense in Hopkins and rookie Will Fuller, who has some of the worst hands in the game, but possesses what seems to be Olympic-level speed (he did run a 4.33 40 time). Don’t forget the very dangerous RB Lamar Miller, giving Houston a versatile offense.

The Pats are down to their third string QB, a rookie, Jacoby Brissett, who looked, well, like a rookie last week against Miami. That was a lot of commas. Whoa. I expect a very stout Texan defense to hold New England to a bunch of checkdowns and scrambles from Brissett all game. It wouldn’t shock me if the Texans won by 6.

Broncos +3.5 at Bengals, 1 unit

You gotta love taking this team when it gets points, every time. The defense has returned to form and looks as dominant as ever. Cincy’s offense has looked “meh” this year against mediocre defenses. While the Bengals generally field a stingy defense, it has been less than stellar against the run through two games, allowing opponents a league-high 276 rushing yards. To Denver’s ears, that’s money, as C.J. Anderson has ran all over the opposition so far this season, to the tune of 166 rushing yards to go with 66 receiving yards and three total touchdowns. Denver’s run game is stronger than anything Cincy does offensively, and I don’t think the road crowd will get to a poised Trevor Siemian. Broncos in a close one.

Rams +6 at Buccaneers, 1 units

The Rams defense is legit as it proved last week in a win against the Seahawks in which no touchdowns were scored. Todd Gurley is due for a big game after rushing for just 98 yards (25th in the league) on 36 attempts (9th most). Not good, Bob. I expect the Rams to make this a low-ish scoring trudge with the possibility of an upset for the second week in a row. You’ve seen the highs of Jameis against a bad defense, and we’ve seen the lows against a good defense last week, when Winston coughed up the ball an astounding five times (four INTs, one fumble). This Bucs offense is high variance, but not historically great against the Rams. The Bucs haven’t gotten a W against Tampa since 2010 (they’ve lost four straight since), so its possible that the Rams are just a thorn in the Bucs side, akin to the Rams’ relationship with the Seahawks.

Steelers -4 at Eagles, 2 units

Yes, I’m risking another pair of units against the fucking Eagles, who have made me looking like a complete dumbass so far. I have underestimated them enough into a fairly favorable spread against a team that will easily be the best opponent yet. Carson Wentz has shown a shit load of promise through his first two starts, albeit against lower end teams like the Browns and Bears. While the Steelers defense is not dominant by any means, it will still be the most well coached of the three by far and should make Wentz’s day a bit harder than his previous opponents have. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh deploys one of the most explosive incomplete offenses ever, led by the NFL’s leading rusher and backup of the year, DeAngelo Williams and the best WR in the league, Toni Brown. I see this being a shootout, but Wentz’s lack of experience has the Eagles falling short by a touchdown or two.

Bears +7 at Cowboys, 1 unit

Yeah, I know the Bears lost smokin’ Jay for a few weeks. *Lil Uzi Voice* IT DO NOT MATTER! Backup Brian Hoyer is better than enough to keep the Bears in this one. Hoyer has shown excellent ability to force feed the shit out of one WR, when Deandre Hopkins was EATING last year, snagging 111 balls for 1,500+ yards and 11 scores. Now, just pretend like Alshon Jeffery is Hopkins and you have yourself a ball game here folks.

The Cowboys and rookie duo Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott have played about average thus far, eeking out a win in Washington and barely losing against the Giants. The Bears run defense has been surprisingly good, but this will be its toughest test and I wouldn’t be shocked if Zeke sets new career highs in yards this game. I think the Boys win in a shootout 30-24.

 

 

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2016 NFL Super Contest Week 2

Solid 3-2 Week 1 in the books. I’ll take a positive outcome on the most unpredictable week of the season any day. On to Week 2. Oh yeah, fuck the Browns.

Tucci’s Record: 3-2 ATS, 0 units

Giants -4.5 vs Saints, 3 units

A little birdie hints that the Giants defense might be in the upper tier of the NFL after abusing the vaunted Cowboys O-line, holding prized rookie Ezekiel Elliott to a meager 2.6 yards per carry average on 20 attempts (51 yards). He did manage a goal line touchdown, but that was all the Giants defense ever gave up to Zeke. If the Giants can demolish such a talent laden O-line, I can’t imagine what they’ll do to a mediocre Saints line. On the other side of the ball, ODB should have no problem getting whatever he wants, whenever he wants on the perennially ineffective Saints defense who, by the way, lost their best cover corner Delvin Breaux to a broken fibula. Also, don’t forget: Drew Brees’ lack of performance on the road is definitely not a myth.

brees

That’s a huge differential in touchdowns. If the Giants can hold Brees to his average of 1.125 touchdowns per game on the road (7.9 points), they should easily be able to win this game. The Saints will likely have to resort to check down throws all game if the Giants defensive line performs similar to itself in Week 1.. The G-Men should take this one by a lot.

Jaguars +3 at Chargers, 1 unit

The Jags jagged last week by only 4 points to one of the NFL’s Super Bowl contenders. Yeah, it was at home, but I like them traveling to lifeless Qualcomm Stadium taking on a Chargers unit that just lost its greatest offensive weapon in Keenan Allen. The Jaguars have talented enough DBs to take on the likes of unproven Tyrell Williams and speedster Travis Benjamin. Bortles will be targeting Robinson early and often, and I expected ARob to haul in at least one bomb for a score after being shut out from any big plays last week versus Green Bay. Jags by a field goal. Continue reading

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2016 NFL Super Contest Mock Season

Hello all once again.

It’s that magical time of year, when the summer heat begins to simmer down and Bears fans are hopelessly optimistic the team can scrounge up at least a 7-9 Jeff Fisher season after going 6-10 with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now new and improved, particularly in the linebacker corps, the defense looks to possibly be the team’s bright spot over the offense for the first time since the late 2000s. And if the season does play out like that, well, to put it bluntly, the Bears are more fucked than Barb from Stranger Things.

For this season, I’ve decided to reformat my weekly NFL gambling posts  to theLas Vegas Super Contest’s rules: pick your favorite five spreads of the week. I’m doing this mainly because:

  1. Picking every single game was time consuming.
  2. Few if anybody bets every single game.
  3. I would only wager major units on a few games anyway.
  4. I can now write more in depth write ups for the games I’m truly confident in.
  5. My goal is to enter the LVSC at some point soon, so why not practice this season?

Last season I finished with an overall 53.2% (133-117-6) win rate through every game and a 70.5% win rate (12-5) for my Lock of the Week picks. Last year’s Super Contest winner finished with a 70% win rate, so I will have to be phenomenal if I want a chunk of that change. Let’s begin.

Tucci’s 2016 NFL Week 1 Picks (0-0-0)

Browns +4 at Eagles, 3 units

I’m not entirely sure how a championship city like Cleveland can possibly be a dog at shit-ass Philly. What’s there to like about Philly? The most famous person associated with Philly is Rocky fucking Balboa – and he’s not even real! The Eagles are starting a rookie QB in Carson Wentz, whose line didn’t even know he hiked the ball during a game this preseason. But, in all seriousness, I don’t like to wager on rookie quarterbacks in their first NFL start, especially those who happen to play in the sorry ass Eagles offense. Take a look at the ridiculous drop rate Eagles QBs had to deal with last year: dropsAnd, as you can see, all of this manifests itself as the NFL’s droppiest receiving corps by a mile (nearly a full 1% ahead of the next team, also the largest disparity between two neighboring teams):drops2Well, at least the Eagles get to play this one at home. Wait, what? Philly was only one of two teams to have 7 wins or more but finish 3-5 at home! I ask again, what exactly is there to like with this team?

When it comes to Cleveland, it has revamped its entire offense from just “generic fringe starter throws to Barnidge” to the 2011-2015 Baylor All-Stars (Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, RG3), which will include a healthy dose of RG3 blindly throwing shit up to talented young wideouts Coleman and Terrelle Pryor. Jesus take the wheel on defense for the Browns, though. I’m counting on a rookie QB to make rookie mistakes over the Cleveland defense playing fantastic. I have Cleveland outright winning this one. Continue reading

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NFL Shit Picks Season Recap + Playoff Shit Picks

FINAL REGULAR SEASON RECORD: 133-117-6, Lock of the Week 12-5, +575 units

Tucci’s NFL Playoff Record (5-6-0, -25 units)

Wildcard Round

Chiefs -3 at Texans 25 units

Steelers -2.5 at Bengals 15 units

Vikings +4.5 vs Seahawks 5 units

Redskins +1 vs Packers 15 units

Divisional Round

Patriots -5 vs Chiefs 30 units

Cardinals -7 vs Packers 25 units

Seahawks +1.5 at Panthers 5 units

Denver -6.5 vs Steelers 15 units

Conference Championship

Patriots -3.5 at Broncos 50 units

Cardinals +3 at Panthers 10 units

(Post will be updated every week)

Super Bowl

Broncos +5.5 20 units

I think Carolina will win a close one.

 

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NFL Week 17 Shit Picks

Tucci’s Week 17 Picks (124-112-5, Lock of the Week 11-5, +480 units)

Saints +5.5 at Falcons 20 units

Jets -3 at Bills 15 units

Bears (Pick) vs Lions 5 units

Ravens +9 at Bengals 5 units

Steelers -10 at Browns 20 units

Redskins +3 at Cowboys 25 units

Colts -4 vs Titans 10 units

Patriots -10 at Dolphins 25 units

Eagles +3 at Giants 10 units

Jaguars +6 at Texans 20 units

Chargers +10 at Broncos 10 units

Cardinals -6 vs Seahawks 20 units

Niners +3 vs Rams 5 units

Panthers -10 vs Buccaneers 20 units

Vikings +3 at Packers 15 units

Tucci’s Lock of the Week

Raidahs +6.5 at Chiefs 45 units

 

 

 

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NFL Week 16 Shit Picks

Tucci’s Week 16 Picks (119-103-5, Lock of the Week 11-4, +555 units)

Raidahs -4.5 vs Chargers 5 units

Eagles -3 vs Redskins 5 units

Panthers -7 at Falcons 10 units

Bills -6.5 vs Dallas 5 units

Niners +10.5 at Lions 10 units

Browns +10.5 at Chiefs 15 units

Dolphins -2.5 vs Colts 5 units

Patriots -3 at Jets 5 units

Bears +3.5 at Buccaneers 20 units

Texans -3.5 at Titans 15 units

Jaguars +3 at Saints 15 units

Cardinals -4.5 vs Packers 10 units

Seahawks -13 vs Rams 25 units

Giants +7.5 Vikings 5 units

Broncos -3.5 vs Bengals 20 units

Tucci’s Lock of the Week

Steelers -10 at Ravens 45 units

 

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NFL Week 15 Shit Picks

Tucci’s Week 15 Picks (111-94-4, Lock of the Week 10-4, +510 units)

Bucanneers +1.5 at Rams 10 units

Jets -3 at Cowboys 5 units

Texans (pick) at Colts 10 units

Bears +5.5 at Vikings 25 units

Patriots -14.5 vs Titans 20 units

Giants +5 vs Panthers 5 units

Buffalo -1 at Redskins 15 units

Jaguars -3 vs Falcons 10 units

Chiefs -7 at Ravens 10 units

Packers -3 at Raiders 20 units

Denver +6 at Steelers 15 units

Miami +2 at Chargers 5 units

Niners +4.5 vs Bengals 15 units

Cardinals -3.5 at Eagles 30 units

Lions +3 at Saints 5 units

Tucci’s Lock of the Week

Seahawks -14.5 vs Browns 50 units

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